In 2023, the national cotton planting area will decrease to a five-year low

    In 2023, due to the decrease in cotton planting revenue in the previous year, the main cotton producing area in Xinjiang was switched to crops such as grains and soybeans, resulting in a decrease in cotton planting area to the lowest level in the past five years. At the same time, due to the adverse weather this year, cotton yield per unit area has also declined, and cotton farmers' planting income has decreased, which may affect their enthusiasm for planting next year. It is expected that there is still a possibility of a decrease in cotton planting area in 2024.
    In 2023, the national cotton planting area decreased to the lowest level in the past five years
    In the past five years, the overall cotton planting area in China has shown a fluctuating downward trend. On the one hand, the cotton planting area is significantly affected by the planting income, and the poor cotton planting income and labor-intensive cotton planting in mainland provinces have led to farmers switching to other crops, which has led to a significant decrease in the cotton planting area in mainland provinces. On the other hand, policy guidance also has a certain impact. Since 2014, with the support of target price subsidy policies, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has remained generally stable. However, in the past two years, due to the adjustment of grain and cotton planting structure, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has slightly decreased as a result of guiding the secondary cotton planting areas to withdraw from cotton cultivation. However, in 2021, the price of seed cotton rose to a 10-year high, and the income from cotton planting in both mainland China and Xinjiang significantly increased, boosting farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting. In 2022, the decrease in cotton planting area in mainland China significantly narrowed, while the cotton planting area in Xinjiang increased. Therefore, in 2022, the national cotton planting area reversed the previous trend of continuous decline and showed a slight increase.

                     

    In 2023, due to the decrease in cotton planting revenue in the previous year and the implementation of a certain proportion of grain planting tasks in Xinjiang, the national cotton planting area returned to a downward trend and dropped to the lowest level in the past five years. According to monitoring, the national cotton planting area in 2023 was 38.026 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 12.35% and a decrease of 16.09% compared to 2019.
Poor cotton yield per unit area and expected planting returns
    In 2023, during the seedling and boll stages of cotton, long-term low temperatures, hail, strong winds, and extreme high temperatures have affected the cotton yield, resulting in a decline in cotton yield and a decrease in cotton farmers' profits. According to research, based on the actual picking situation in October, the proportion of seed cotton reaching 400 kg/mu in Xinjiang is less than 20%, while the proportion of cotton weighing over 500 kg last year was over 15%. This year, the proportion of seed cotton producing 300-340 kilograms per mu is about 18%, and the proportion of cotton below 300 kilograms is over 8%. Preliminary evaluation shows that the average yield of seed cotton per mu in Xinjiang in 2023 may be 385 kilograms, a decrease of 38.5 kilograms compared to last year. If calculated based on the recent Xinjiang seed cotton price of 7.4 yuan/kg, the gross income per mu of land will decrease by 285 yuan. Compared to the planting cost this year, the current income barely covers the planting cost, but for cotton farmers below 385 kilograms, they are currently in a loss state.